In Politics today, we have a whole lot to talk about and the question is who hasn’t decided yet? Hardest obstacle for Donald Trump to win: Most minds are made. How good can this really be if the unimaginable happens in the United States on the side of President Donald Trump.
WASHINGTON. Trying to regain the lead in the presidential race when time is running out, Donald Trump is so aware of the voters he needs – those he is trying to win back – that he calls them by name.
“To my loved ones in the world,” the president said in a video last week, having just returned to the White House after fighting the coronavirus, “to the elderly.”
A few days later, during a campaign halt on Tuesday in Johnstown, Pennsylvania, Trump reached out to other demographic groups that could hinder his re-election. “Do me a favor, suburban women, would you love me? I saved your damn neighborhood, okay? ”
As support for Trump wanes among voters aged 65 and over, women and voters from the suburbs, Democratic candidate Joe Biden has taken the lead in several national polls and widened the lead in struggling states.
The position of the former vice president reminded of 2016, when Democrat Hillary Clinton also led the polls three weeks before Election Day, before Trump’s victory.
But Trump is faced with a problem, unlike four years ago: An overwhelming majority of voters – 95% or higher in most polls – say they have already decided who they support and cannot be convinced. The problems for the president are exacerbated by the fact that more than 26 million people have already voted early, aided by the Democrats’ large advantage in voting by mail.
“I think it’s vital that the current president leaves the White House and gets into his business practices,” said Bob Lowe, a 72-year-old retired superintendent from Le Center, Minnesota, who has already voted for Biden since backing the libertarian candidate. Gary Johnson in 2016.
Lowe, an independent politician, said he was “not fascinated by any of the candidates,” but called Trump’s response to the coronavirus pandemic “just terrible,” and said his “personality, actions and behavior demean the office of the President of the United States.” He said he made his decision in August and has no friends or family members who have not yet made up his mind.
“I think the boundaries have been drawn, perhaps for a while.”
Biden polled more than 50% – a mark that Clinton rarely reached
With fewer indecisive voters in this year’s election and fewer considering voting for an outside candidate, Biden overshadowed an important mark.
He consistently votes with more than 50% of voters, while Clinton typically voted in October ahead of the 2016 elections, ranging from high or even up to 40%. Strong opinions about Trump after his four years in the White House proved to be a challenge for the president.
And Biden, devoid of high negative ratings like Clinton’s, has become an elusive target for Trump’s campaign. This has led to a remarkably stable race, with a slight tightening of poll results compared to past elections. Trump has not led the national average in Real Clear Politics polls since Biden became the Democratic nominee in August. Biden’s lowest score was 49%. Trump’s highest rate is 43%.
An NPR / Maristy University poll released Thursday found Biden ahead of Trump by 54-43% among likely voters. Only 2% said they were not sure who they would vote for, and only 1% said they supported an outside candidate. Only 5% of voters said they could be persuaded to change their minds.
“This is an incredibly low figure,” said Lee Meiringhoff, director of the Institute of Public Opinion at Marist College. “President Trump’s strategy from the moment he took office has been to keep jumping around the base. Because of his personality, it ends with a referendum when he really needs to make a choice and he couldn’t. ”
Meiringoff added: “There are very few people right now who are considering options. This makes it very difficult for the president. It’s a very steep slope for him. People are comparing this to 2016, but I think this is a very false comparison.”
According to the Real Clear Politics nationwide poll average, Biden was 51.3% to 42.3% ahead of Trump on Saturday among likely voters. Trump was about the same in 2016, 42.2%, but Clinton’s poll average was 47.7% lower than Biden’s.
The percentage of undecided voters in October polls four years ago ranged from 4% to 9% overall. The 2016 race was much smoother. Clinton and Trump received significant rejections following their party conventions. Trump took the lead in late July.
In the final month of the race, Clinton gained support following the release of Trump’s Access Hollywood video in which he made vulgar comments about women, followed by Trump’s refusal after FBI Director James Comey announced an investigation of new emails recovered in a study of Clinton’s personal mail server …
Fewer voters consider third-party candidates
In addition to more indecisive voters in 2016, more voters were also willing to vote for Johnson and another third-party candidate, Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Johnson finished with 3.3% of the vote and Stein with 1.1%, enough to play a role in several states on the battlefield, which Trump won by a narrow margin.
In a 2016 NBC / Wall Street Journal poll conducted between October 8 and October 10 of that year, Johnson scored 9% and Stein 2%. Third-party candidates this year – libertarian Joe Jorgensen, Green Party nominee Howie Hawkins and rapper Kanye West – are barely registering in most polls and will not be included on all state ballots.
“This goes against the idea of Trump voting in disguise,” said David Palaeologus, director of the Center for Policy Studies at Suffolk University. “Part of the reason some states denied Trump in 2016 was the presence of outside candidates, both libertarians and greens, and even more undecided.”
Paleologue said 2020 is not a reflection of 2016 because Biden has not become polarizing like Clinton or Trump.
Trump’s campaign challenged him to try to lower Biden’s favor rating – by portraying him as a socialist, calling him mentally handicapped, and promoting tales of his son Hunter Biden – but the attacks largely failed. In contrast, Paleologos said four years ago that many voters disliked Clinton “more” than Trump.
“You don’t have that this time,” Palaeologus said. “You definitely have a negative attitude towards Trump, people who feel unfavorable to him, but this does not correspond to an unfavorable attitude towards Biden. Less interest in chatting. And there is less interest in voting for an outside candidate. ”
Trump sticks to game plan. Four years after Democrats felt scorched by polls, Biden’s campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon tried last week to allay any complacency and early celebration among the left. “This campaign still has a long way to go and we think this race is much closer than people on this site think,” she wrote on Twitter. “It seems much closer.”
While his support among the elderly, in particular, has plummeted during the coronavirus pandemic – Biden is ahead of senior voters by about 20 percentage points in some battlefield states – Trump hasn’t changed his approach to appeal to voters who are still could be convinced.
Fighting Trump was showcased Thursday at Miami City Hall, hosted by NBC News, with the participation of unregistered voters.
Trump refused to denounce the QAnon group, falsely said 85% of people wearing masks are infected with the coronavirus, and said he could not remember if he tested negative for coronavirus ahead of the first presidential debate. “How sweet,” he told moderator Savannah Guthrie at one point when she pushed for the QAnon conspiracy theories.
One city hall voter, Paulette Dale, a registered Republican who said she was leaning towards voting for Biden, teased the president by telling him, “I have to say you have a great smile. You are so beautiful when you smile. … ”
And yet even she made up her mind. The Miami New Times reported that Friday Dale is sticking to its plans to vote for Biden on Monday when early voting begins in Florida. “I wish he would smile more and talk less,” Dale, a former professor at Miami Dade College, told the newspaper.
Trump beat many late voters in 2016, but this year he has struggled to keep his 2016 coalition intact.
“Biden is doing better among white voters. He has made several forays into people without college degrees, ”said Meiringhoff, who led the NPR / Marist survey. “And he has achieved significant success among people over 65. This is really another part of the electorate. ”
Mike Loewenstein, 72, who calls himself a moderate conservative from Ocala, Florida, where Trump campaigned on Friday, voted for Trump four years ago. But this year he paused, claiming Trump “spoiled his leadership role” in the fight against the pandemic. “A national emergency of this magnitude, he failed as a leader. He failed it politically. ”
Loewenstein, a retired call center director, also doesn’t believe in Biden and said he plans to watch the duel at the town halls last week to see if “anyone really said anything that makes sense to me.”
“I look at what they actually achieved, not what was said,” Loewenstein said. “As soon as I make a decision, I’ll make it and just do it.”
Others, such as 66-year-old Gilbert Lightbourne, an automotive consultant based in Miami Gardens, Florida, made the decision a few months ago. “(Trump) is divisive. I do not think that now he is the person who will rule the country. Too much drama, let me put it this way, ”said Gilbert, a Democrat who plans to vote for Biden. “I just would like to get it over with and our country is moving in the right direction.”